Bitcoin remains stuck in the $80,000 consolidation range, with rising rate hike expectations capping upside potential

Odaily News - According to the Bitfinex Alpha analysis report, August employment data has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. The market now estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16 at approximately 60%. However, Bitcoin remains near $80,000, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $986.7 million last week.

Data shows that US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6, indicating that the economy has not shown signs of a sharp slowdown. Nevertheless, input costs remain elevated, and inflationary pressures have shifted market policy discussions back toward rate hikes.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets, with the 2-year yield climbing to 4.37% and the 30-year yield holding at a high of 5.24%. Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $82,000 recently and remains range-bound between approximately $77,200 and $82,100.

Bitfinex believes that sustained ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin supply are providing support for Bitcoin, but Fed policy expectations and elevated Treasury yields are limiting upside potential. If this week's inflation data comes in below expectations, the market may once again price in a pause in rate hikes for September; conversely, persistent inflationary pressures could further strengthen rate hike expectations. Until a breakout from the current consolidation range occurs, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain a relatively strong sideways trend rather than confirming the start of a new upward rally.