ARK Invest: BTC Price Decline Diverges from Whale Accumulation, Market Cycle Bottom Signals Emerge

Odaily reports that ARK Invest's "The Bitcoin Quarterly" report for Q2 2026 indicates Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, closing around $58,544, and broke below three major technical moving averages. Historically, this technical pattern is often associated with bearish market conditions. The report shows that despite price pressure, Bitcoin Long-term Holders continued to accumulate, pushing their holdings to a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, absorbing coins released during the market correction.

ARK Invest stated that on-chain data is signaling signs of seller exhaustion: the supply of BTC in loss exceeds the supply in profit, and the rate of realized losses once surpassed the rate of realized profits. Historically, similar phenomena have often clustered near the bottom of market cycles.

The report also pointed out that institutional demand in the Bitcoin market is facing pressure. Both corporate Bitcoin reserves (Treasury Companies) and the ETF ecosystem have shown signs of weakness:

The STRC preferred stock price once fell to approximately $74.57, below its $100 par value;

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately 70,000 BTC.

ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows indicate a weakening of important marginal buying pressure for Bitcoin, but continued accumulation by long-term holders suggests a redistribution of coins is occurring within the market.

The firm stated that a clear divergence is currently forming between BTC's price performance and the behavior of long-term holders. Historical data shows that such divergences can often serve as important observation signals for market cycle turning points.