Odaily News According to data from prediction market Polymarket, the current prediction probability of Trump winning the US presidential election has risen to 59.1%, while Harris's probability of winning the election has dropped to 41%, and the gap between the two has widened again to 18.1 percentage points. In addition, the amount of bets on the US election on the platform is close to US$3.2 billion (US$3,181,480,562).