Odaily Planet Daily News: After Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh signaled a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Bitcoin spiked and then retreated, falling to $76,877 on Friday at one point—a pullback from the overnight high of $81,455—before eventually closing at $77,557, down 3.39% on the day. Bitcoin recorded double-digit gains earlier this week, but the $81,000 to $82,500 resistance zone once again capped the upside. Warsh stated that the pace of U.S. inflation decline remains insufficient and that work still needs to be done before the 2% inflation target is achieved, leading the market to raise expectations for a September rate hike. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35.4% the previous day to 55.7%. Over the past 24 hours, approximately $481 million was liquidated across the market, with long liquidations exceeding $360 million. Prediction market data shows that traders currently assign a 77% probability to Bitcoin reaching the next major target of $84,000, and a 23% probability of a drop to $55,000, with Friday's pullback not yet changing this ratio. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for eight consecutive trading days as of Wednesday, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $2.8 billion—the longest consecutive inflow streak since April. Bitcoin's RSI stands at around 69.7, not yet entering the extremely overbought zone that previously triggered pullbacks. Should it decline further, the $73,670 to $75,157 zone will become a key defense level for bulls; reclaiming the $81,000 to $82,500 range could open up room for new highs. With Warsh downplaying forward guidance, the market lacks a clear policy path ahead of the next rate-setting meeting, and Bitcoin may continue to be affected by volatility driven by inflation data and shifts in rate expectations.

Odaily News, Coinglass data shows that in the past hour, total liquidations across the network reached $220 million, with long liquidations accounting for $209 million and short liquidations at $10.52 million. BTC liquidations amounted to $97.37 million, while ETH liquidations reached $62.13 million.

Odaily News U.S. short-term Treasury yields are rising. In a closely watched speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh emphasized that the Fed needs to curb consumer price increases, thereby alleviating some market concerns about its ability to fight inflation.

During Warsh's speech, short-term Treasuries were sold off while long-term Treasuries rallied. The two-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield fell 1 basis point to 5.19%. Both moves indicate that markets expect the Federal Reserve may need to raise short-term interest rates. Bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance since Warsh held his first press conference in June. At that time, Warsh emphasized the need to curb inflation and adopted a hawkish stance.

Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again held interest rates steady, and Warsh did not indicate whether a rate hike is possible this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields rose sharply as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation. On Friday, Warsh warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving, or the central bank "still has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring inflation back to the 2% target, emphasizing that this goal is clear and fixed.

According to Odaily, data from Gate shows that since Federal Reserve Chair Warsh made his remarks, spot gold and silver have fallen sharply in the short term. Gold has rebounded slightly after dropping about $100 from its high, bottoming out at $4,530 per ounce, and is currently trading at $4,560 per ounce. Silver has plunged more than $1 on the day, hitting a low of $68.1 per ounce, and is currently trading at $69.0 per ounce.

Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said in his first Jackson Hole speech that the U.S. economy has strengthened and remains resilient, but the Fed still needs to continue addressing inflation.

Warsh stated that the labor market is consistent with full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and initial jobless claims near multi-decade lows. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation rate over the past year was 3.7%, and the annualized inflation rate over the past six months was 4.1%, both significantly above the Fed's 2% target. 54% of items in the PCE price index basket rose by more than 3% over the past year, indicating that inflation remains fairly broad-based.

Warsh said that recent better-than-expected inflation data has not yet convinced him that the underlying inflation trend has shown substantial improvement. Credit spreads remain narrow, lending standards are relatively loose, and credit markets show little sign of policy tightening. He stated: "I find it difficult to characterize overall financial conditions as restrictive."

Warsh said the Fed should currently focus primarily on prices and reiterated that the 2% inflation target is a "firm and fixed goal." He also noted that the Fed's forward guidance "has become outdated" and that markets should no longer rely mainly on the Fed for their next trade.

Warsh stated that the criteria for initiating easing are: "We must be convinced that underlying inflation is clearly and quickly moving toward target. Otherwise, we still have work to do." He concluded his speech by saying: "I stand here today to adhere to a discipline, not to make a decision."

Odaily News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer were better than expected, they have not convinced me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." "Market prices reflect the market's belief that we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct."

Warsh subsequently stated that with inflation above 2%, the Federal Reserve's "primary focus at present should be on prices." Warsh's highly anticipated remarks come amid criticism of his streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe this strategy has lacked clear articulation regarding the near-term economic and monetary policy outlook.

Warsh's comments appear to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views of the economic situation and the policy priorities of the Federal Reserve under his leadership. He said, "Let us also be clear about another aspect of our goal: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return to target on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Warsh will not answer questions raised by central bank officials and economists on site.

Odaily News Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh warned that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing, and stated that policymakers must be confident inflation is moving in the right direction, or the central bank still has "more work to do."

Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed goal. Warsh said: "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and at a pace that is clear and fast enough. Otherwise, we have more work to do. That is our job." Warsh also noted that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and that interest rates are the Fed's "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate.

Odaily News: Market pricing indicates that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is now estimated at about 50%.

According to Odaily, data from Gate shows that spot gold has fallen below $4,560 per ounce, down 0.91% on the day.

Odaily News: US short-term interest rate futures fell, and market pricing showed that bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike increased following remarks by Fed Chair Warsh.

Warsh stated that forward guidance should play a limited role, and that forward-looking policy should not be based on outdated or inaccurate data. The likelihood of significantly higher economic growth is rising, and market participants should focus on real information in the economy.