Odaily星球日报讯 加密交易员正密切关注美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，市场将从中寻找未来货币政策和流动性走向线索。

分析人士预计，沃什可能继续强调抗击通胀立场，但短期内美联储或不会在美国中期选举前采取加息行动。Risk Dimensions 首席投资官马克·康纳斯表示，沃什更可能讨论美联储政策框架调整，而非释放具体利率行动信号，并预计“中期选举前不会加息”。

此前，比特币在过去 10 天上涨，主要受美国财政部推动压低长期利率、增加长期美债购买等措施影响。Hashdex 首席投资官萨米尔·克尔贝格表示，比特币上涨“主要是流动性事件”，其走势与全球流动性和长期利率曲线变化相关，而非单一美联储会议决定。

目前，美联储联邦基金利率维持在 3.50%-3.75%区间，市场仍关注通胀压力。美国 7 月个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）同比升至 3.7%，高于美联储 2%的目标水平，推动部分交易员提高 9 月加息预期。

此外，本届杰克逊霍尔会议主题聚焦金融创新、支付和政策，加密市场也关注稳定币、代币化存款及区块链支付基础设施是否会获得更积极的监管态度。若沃什将相关技术视为金融体系创新的一部分，而非风险来源，智能合约网络和代币化支付协议或将获得更大关注。（CoinDesk）

Odaily星球日报讯 杰克逊霍尔年会尚未开幕，外汇市场已经先动了。美元看涨对冲需求升温，本周迄今期权资金过半押注美元走强，风险逆转指标的看空倾向也大幅收窄。

期权资金流向显示，本周美元走强的对冲需求明显升温。芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的数据显示，截至目前，57.2%的美元期权资金流押注美元兑主要货币走强，高于上周的 43.2%；风险逆转指标显示，市场对美元的看空倾向也大幅收窄。

美元此前一度因美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）突然干预债市而承压，但随后已经收复此前跌幅的一半。

ING 货币策略师弗朗切斯科·佩索尔（Francesco Pesole）认为，沃什的讲话可能成为外汇市场的关键事件，在结果明朗前，交易员可能不愿大举做空美元。

According to Odaily, Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed whisperer," analyzes in his latest article that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first major speech at Jackson Hole this week will face a core question: whether persistently high U.S. inflation is caused by one-off shocks like tariffs and wars, or whether the economy itself remains overheated.

This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates, and it is also the biggest disagreement within the Federal Reserve currently. At the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, and other officials have also signaled the possibility of further tightening, while Warsh has yet to take a clear stance. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Fed colleagues are waiting for his first systematic explanation of his views.

The key to Warsh's tenure ultimately depends on how he explains why previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the rate cuts and pro-employment policies of the past two years were themselves mistakes, because the labor market was actually stronger than the Fed had judged, then Warsh would need to push for reversing the rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the stance previously taken by Trump and Bessent, who had called for further rate cuts.

Odaily Blocknews: The U.S. July inflation report shows that while price growth met expectations, actual consumer spending has stalled. Market pricing for a September Fed rate hike has notably rebounded, putting the Fed's decision-making under stricter scrutiny.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, both exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, performed steadily, up 0.2% month-over-month and holding at 3.3% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. Following the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike next month have significantly rebounded. Interest rate futures data show the probability of a September hike jumped from 36% before the release to 42%.

As inflation enters its "long-tail phase," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium this Friday. For Warsh, Friday's speech presents a critical opportunity to strike a balance within a complex data landscape. He must chart a clear path for global investors between the determination to combat stubborn inflation and the need to avoid pushing the economy into a deep recession.