Odaily: Traders have pushed back expectations of a Fed rate hike to October.

Odaily Odaily reported that according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 16.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 8.6%.

Odaily reported that as consumer price data came in lower than expected, traders have withdrawn their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, driving a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury prices. The two-year Treasury yield, highly sensitive to the near-term outlook for Fed monetary policy, fell by as much as 14 basis points to 4.14%, marking its largest single-day decline since February. Meanwhile, interest rate swaps show that the probability of the Fed raising rates in July has fallen from over 40% to approximately 20%.

Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, stated: "This is a broad-based miss on the data. The possibility of a near-term rate hike is now off the table. The market had been worried about inflation coming in too high, so this data should be positive for the bond market and help steepen the yield curve. Our baseline expectation is that the Fed will hold rates steady, and this data confirms that view." (Jin Shi)

Odaily News: "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: June CPI data showed broad moderation. Core goods prices fell for the second consecutive month, with a decline of 0.09%. Housing prices rose by only 0.12%. Core services prices excluding housing fell by 0.2%, the lowest level since the pandemic.

Odaily报道，Coinglass数据显示，过去1小时全网爆仓金额达6083万美元，其中多单爆仓402万美元，空单爆仓5680万美元。此外，BTC爆仓金额为2889万美元，ETH爆仓金额为2072万美元。

According to Odaily, U.S. consumer prices fell in June for the first time in six years, and a key measure of underlying inflation was largely flat, which somewhat eases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Tuesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% from a year earlier. The core index, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from May and rose 2.6% from a year earlier.

The report indicates that as the worst of the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war begins to fade, the decline in gasoline prices in June has provided some relief for consumers. With the Fed's meeting at the end of this month approaching, Fed officials may welcome this data; however, the resurgence of U.S.-Iran hostilities has led to another rise in oil prices, which could prolong the inflationary impact caused by the conflict. As investors reduce their bets on a Fed rate hike in July, U.S. stock index futures rose and Treasury yields fell. Data show that core inflation was restrained, mainly due to declines in prices for goods such as clothing and used cars. Motor vehicle insurance premiums also fell sharply.

Odaily reported that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated that the opportunities presented by AI pose challenges for policymakers, and the Fed is monitoring the impact of AI on inflation and the labor market. (Jin Shi)

According to Gate data, following the release of CPI data, U.S. and Brent crude oil prices saw minimal short-term fluctuation, currently standing at $79.76/barrel and $85.5/barrel, respectively.

Odaily Odaily reported that market pricing shows bets on a Fed rate hike this month have been scaled back. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10 basis points on the day to 4.18%. (Jinshi)

Odaily Planet Daily reported: According to Gate data, following the CPI data release, spot silver quickly rose by $2 to $59.15 per ounce, while spot gold quickly rose by $13 to $4096.2 per ounce.

Odaily reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Wash stated the Fed has zero tolerance for persistent high inflation, the labor market remains generally stable, nominal wage growth is steady, and the U.S. economy is resilient with steady growth. (Jin Shi)

Odaily News: The U.S. June unadjusted CPI annual rate came in at 3.5%, compared to the expected 3.8% and the previous value of 4.20%. (Jin10)