Odaily reported that the US 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.177%, reaching its highest level since 2007.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to a report by Anthony Willis, senior economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, financial conditions have tightened—a trend clearly visible in the global bond market, where yields are rising sharply. He noted that due to rising energy costs, market expectations indicate inflation will remain higher for longer, leading to an upward trend in bond yields across many developed markets. Willis stated that the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates first at its June meeting, followed by the Bank of England in July. He added: "As for the Federal Reserve, market expectations have undergone a dramatic shift this year, moving from expectations of aggressive rate cuts under new leadership to current market pricing that reflects rate hikes over the next 12 to 18 months." (Jin Shi)

Odaily reports that Quek Ser Leang, a strategist at United Overseas Bank's Global Economics & Markets Research, stated that based on the weekly chart, the US 10-year Treasury yield could move higher. He noted that the 10-year yield surged 23.1 basis points last week, and "on the few previous occasions when the 10-year yield experienced such a significant weekly spike, yields moved higher thereafter." He added that last week's strong rally "was accompanied by yields breaking above the weekly downtrend line connecting the highs of 5.021% and 4.809%, which increases the likelihood of further upward momentum." (Jin Shi)

Odaily Planet Daily News Morgan Stanley's "warning line" for U.S. stocks has been breached. The bank's Chief Investment Officer and renowned Wall Street bull warned that if U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise and volatility climbs, the U.S. stock market will face its "first significant correction since late March." Michael Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, stated: "If long-term yields rise alongside increased bond volatility, we expect the stock market to experience its first notable correction since bottoming in late March." Morgan Stanley has marked a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 4.5% as a "critical threshold where yields could pose a more obvious resistance to stock valuations." (Jinshi)

Odaily reported that US long-term Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels in nearly three years, as investor concerns over accelerating inflation sparked a selloff in global bond markets.

After US President Donald Trump pressured Iran to reach an agreement to end the war, causing oil prices to extend their gains, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose as much as 4 basis points to 5.16%, the highest level since October 2023. Yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes reached 4.63% and 4.10%, respectively, their highest since February 2025. In Japan, the yield on the 30-year Japanese government bond surged 20 basis points to 4.2%, hitting its highest level since the bond was first issued in 1999.

Bond traders often regard the 5% yield level on the 30-year US Treasury as a "line in the sand," believing it will attract bargain-hunting buyers. Guneet Dhingra, head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas, stated, "There is no anchor point above 5%." He advised clients to focus on the 5.25% to 5.5% trading range for the 30-year US Treasury bond. (Jin Shi)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that after the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged past the 20-year high of 5%, the sell-off panic continued to spread on Monday. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond soared to 2.8%, hitting a 30-year high; stocks in South Korea plunged sharply, triggering a circuit breaker; and gold slipped below $4,500.

Investors believe the key is that as long as the confrontation in the Middle East continues to disrupt oil flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on bonds will persist. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated: "This price action is concerning for two reasons: long-term interest rates are rising globally and tend to influence each other, and the prospect of Fed rate hikes is entering the market narrative." (Jin Shi)

Odaily reported that the recent剧烈波动 in the U.S. Treasury market has presented an important early test for incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh.

Subadra Rajappa, Head of Americas Research at Societe Generale, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on May 15 that bond yield movements have shown clear anomalies due to expectations of accelerating inflation.

Rajappa noted that the surge in energy prices, triggered by the war with Iran, is intensifying inflationary pressures in the U.S. This will limit Walsh's room to push for interest rate cuts, a policy direction he previously supported and which was also demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump. She stated bluntly: "I'm starting to get a little worried because bond yields do look a bit out of control. We should seriously pay attention to the signals the bond market is sending."

Expectations in the interest rate market have also shifted rapidly. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that traders now estimate the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by December to be nearly two-thirds. Just on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel took military action against Iran, the market was broadly betting on more than two rate cuts within the year. (Jin Shi)