Odaily reported that market analysts are clearly divided over whether Bitcoin is repeating the "sell in May" pattern. Some analysts argue that, during U.S. midterm election years, Bitcoin has historically experienced significant drawdowns in May twice: in 2018, dropping from approximately $10,000 to $7,000, and in 2022, falling nearly 30% from around $40,000 before further declining into the $20,000 range. Based on this pattern, some warn that 2026 could see a similar bear market structure.

Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated that this cycle "has a high degree of repetition," and if history repeats itself, BTC could even fall back to $33,000, despite current factors such as the advancing CLARITY Act, favorable policy developments, and improving trade expectations. João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, pointed out that when prices consistently stay below $78,000, the market enters a higher-probability "capitulation phase," with bearish momentum increasing.

However, opposing views suggest that historical declines were actually driven by more specific macroeconomic shocks, including liquidity tightening, industry black swan events, and regulatory impacts, rather than purely seasonal patterns. CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko emphasized that the current market structure has been significantly altered by ETF inflows, institutional allocations, and corporate holdings, making it unlikely to repeat the extreme 70%–80% drawdowns of the past.

BTC is currently trading around $76,900, with a key support level identified in the $76,000 range. A break below this level could open the door to deeper corrections. (Cointelegraph)

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.039 billion during the trading week (May 11 to May 15, Eastern Time).

The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was the Ark & 21Shares ETF ARKB, with a weekly net outflow of $324 million. ARKB's total historical net inflow currently stands at $1.39 billion. The second largest was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $317 million. IBIT's total historical net inflow now stands at $65.78 billion.

The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow last week was the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC, with a weekly net inflow of $12.604 million. BTC's total historical net inflow currently stands at $2.30 billion.

As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $104.29 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market cap as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market cap) has reached 6.58%, and the cumulative historical net inflow has reached $58.34 billion.

Odaily reported that Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on platform X, saying: "Next, wait patiently for bottom-fishing opportunities. Investment and trading are essentially about curbing greed and controlling panic. The next phase may be the most panic-stricken stage in the crypto circle, with BTC bought at high prices facing the final round of a major shakeout. The crypto industry is facing five major crises: the younger generation is no longer interested, traditional capital is mainly flowing into AI, crypto narratives are being repeatedly disproven, various celebrities are coming to the crypto space to cash out and leave, and industry leaders lack innovation and building."

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad decline. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.19%, dropping below $77,000; Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.71%, dropping below the $2,200 mark. Only the DeFi and SocialFi sectors showed relative strength, rising 1.18% and 2.40% over the past 24 hours respectively. Within the DeFi sector, Block Street (BSB) surged 42.25%, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose 10.51%. In the SocialFi sector, Toncoin (TON) increased by 4.12%.

All other sectors recorded declines: The CeFi sector fell 1.17% in the past 24 hours, with Binance Coin (BNB) dropping 1.07%; the Layer1 sector fell 1.46%, though Zcash (ZEC) saw an intraday spike of 5.22%; the Layer2 sector fell 1.70%, with Optimism (OP) declining 3.18%; the PayFi sector fell 1.78%, but Telcoin (TEL) managed a gain of 1.55%; the Meme sector fell 1.94%, while Binance Life bucked the trend by rising 6.47%; the AI sector fell 7.91%, yet Billions Network (BILL) surged counter-trend by 14.06%.

Crypto sector indices reflecting historical sector trends show that the ssiSocialFi and ssiDeFi indices rose by 3.26% and 2.49% respectively, while the ssiAI index declined by 7.91%.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that after the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged past the 20-year high of 5%, the sell-off panic continued to spread on Monday. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond soared to 2.8%, hitting a 30-year high; stocks in South Korea plunged sharply, triggering a circuit breaker; and gold slipped below $4,500.

Investors believe the key is that as long as the confrontation in the Middle East continues to disrupt oil flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on bonds will persist. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated: "This price action is concerning for two reasons: long-term interest rates are rising globally and tend to influence each other, and the prospect of Fed rate hikes is entering the market narrative." (Jin Shi)