Odaily Planet Daily News: According to market sources, traders have pushed back their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to October.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 8.6%.
Odaily Planet Daily News: Affected by consumer price data coming in lower than expected, traders have withdrawn their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, driving a significant surge in U.S. Treasury prices. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to the short-term monetary policy outlook of the Fed, once fell by 14 basis points to 4.14%, marking its largest single-day drop since February. Meanwhile, interest rate swap markets indicate that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has dropped from over 40% previously to around 20%.
Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, said: "This is a data release that fell short of expectations across the board. The possibility of a short-term rate hike has vanished. The market had been worried that inflation data would be too high, so this data should be good for the bond market and prompt the yield curve to steepen again. Our baseline expectation is that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, and this data confirms that view." (Jin Shi)
Odaily Planet Daily News: "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos reported that June CPI data showed a broad-based slowdown. Core goods prices fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.09%. Housing prices rose by only 0.12%. Core services prices excluding housing fell by 0.2%, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began.
Odaily Planet Daily News, Coinglass data shows that in the past hour, global liquidations reached 60.83 million USD, with long liquidations at 4.02 million USD and short liquidations at 56.8 million USD. Additionally, BTC liquidations amounted to 28.89 million USD, and ETH liquidations reached 20.72 million USD.
Odaily星球日报讯 美国 6 月份消费者价格六年来首次出现下滑，且一项衡量潜在通胀的关键指标基本持平，这在一定程度上缓解了美联储加息的压力。根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，消费者价格指数（CPI）较 5 月份下降 0.4%，较上年同期上涨 3.5%。剔除食品和能源后的核心指数与 5 月份持平，较上年同期上涨 2.6%。
该报告显示，随着伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击最严重时期开始消退，6 月份汽油价格的下跌为消费者带来了一定程度的缓解。在美联储本月底召开会议之前，美联储官员可能会对这一数据表示欢迎；不过，美伊敌对局势重燃导致油价再次上涨，这可能延长该冲突引发的通胀影响。随着投资者减少对美联储 7 月份加息的押注，美国股指期货上涨，国债收益率下跌。数据显示，核心通胀指标受到抑制，主要归因于服装和二手车等商品价格的下跌。机动车保险费也大幅下降。(金十)
Odaily Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that AI opportunities pose challenges for policymakers, and the Fed is monitoring AI's impact on inflation and the labor market. (Jin10)
According to Gate data, after the release of the CPI data, U.S. and Brent crude oil prices showed little short-term change, standing at $79.76/barrel and $85.5/barrel, respectively.
Odaily Planet Daily News 시장 가격에 따르면, 이번 달 연준의 금리 인상 베팅이 하향 조정되었습니다. 미국 2년 만기 국채 수익률은 이날 10bp 하락한 4.18%를 기록했습니다. (Jinshi)
Odaily星球日报讯 据 Gate 数据，CPI 数据公布后，现货白银短线上涨 2 美元，报 59.15 美元/盎司。现货黄金短线上涨 13 美元，报 4096.2 美元/盎司。
오데일리 플래닛 데일리 뉴스: 연준 의장 워시는 연준이 지속적인 고인플레이션에 대해 무관용 자세를 취하고 있으며, 노동 시장은 전반적으로 안정적이고 명목 임금 상승이 견고하며, 미국 경제는 강한 회복력과 안정적인 성장을 보이고 있다고 밝혔습니다. (금시)
Odaily星球日报讯 美国 6 月未季调 CPI 年率 3.5%，预期 3.8%，前值 4.20%。(金十）
